Canadians who have left organized religions are eager to reconnect with their churches, according to data analyzed by a leading expert on religious trends.
Reginald Bibby, a professor of sociology at the University of Lethbridge, Alta., acknowledges attendance among Roman Catholic and mainline Protestant denominations remains low. But he said the bleeding, which defined the last two decades, has stopped. "It's not a dramatic renaissance, but there are signs of life."
The findings, drawn from national surveys of adults and teenagers in 1984, 1992 and 2000, contradict the secularization theory to which many academics subscribed a decade ago.
Dr. Bibby was among those who previously argued advanced modern societies such as Canada were setting religion aside; he concluded it "looked grim" for organized religion in this century in his 1993 book, Unknown Gods.
But in his new book, Restless Gods: The Renaissance of Religion in Canada, Dr. Bibby says the picture looks different today, particularly among teenagers.
In 1984, 22% of mainline Protestants and Roman Catholics outside Quebec aged 15 to 19 attended church weekly. Their attendance dropped to 17% in 1992. "We expected to find a continuing downward pattern, but it bounded back up to about 22% in 2000," he said.
Among Canadians who do not attend church regularly, 85% identify themselves as affiliated with the faith community in which they were raised. Further, 55% of adults and 39% of teens who rarely attend church are open to greater involvement if they found it worthwhile.
Few are open to conversion, while the vast majority anticipate participating in rites of passages, such as a religious wedding, baptism or funeral.
"Canadians continue to identify with religious traditions and they're simply not inclined to drop off altogether and are extremely reluctant just to switch," Dr. Bibby said. "There are deep-seated loyalties, even if people aren't active."
He said this contradicts assumptions of a decade ago: Canadians were portrayed as "religious free agents" drawn to New Age teachings or no religion at all.
Mr. Bibby said in the early 1980s, the statistics regarding attendance at Canadian churches were so discouraging that "in the minds of some I was 'Bad-news Bibby.' "
In Unknown Gods, Dr. Bibby wrote that "life for organized religion in Canada's 21st century looks extremely grim."
The churches floundered throughout the last half of the 20th century, Dr. Bibby said, because such mainline denominations as the Anglican and United Churches failed to build churches in growing suburbs, and failed to launch youth ministries that have been one of the keys to continuing growth among evangelical denominations.
Among those surveyed in 2000, three-quarters report they pray privately, while half say they have experienced God's presence, including 36% of teenagers.
Still, Dr. Bibby said organized religion has a tough task ahead. "It's not to say we're necessarily going to have a happy ending. Religious groups haven't lost these people, they simply have to get in touch with them."
John Stackhouse, a historian at Regent College, a graduate school of Christian studies at the University of British Columbia, interprets the data differently. He said just as Dr. Bibby was too pessimistic a decade ago when he predicated the collapse of organized religion, he is being too optimistic today.
"If you are looking at things through the old secularization thesis of the inevitability of religion's decline, than you're grateful that people aren't as bad as we feared."
Dr. Stackhouse said data on attendance and financial contributions to churches still point to weak institutions. "By those measures, the Canadian Church is not strong."
Further, Dr. Stackhouse said more time must pass to determine how baby boomers' children will response to organized religion to assess the long-term viability of the Churches.
"We have not moved far enough away from Christianity as the default position of Canadians. I think we need that whole generation to die out, so it's no longer Grandma and Grandpa's religion, or Mom and Dad's religion, but the decision of those kids growing up with nothing, where there's not going to be any personal memory of automatic churchgoing."
Bonnie Greene, an executive at the United Church of Canada, said the Church knows it must work hard to woo congregants. "You can't assume a kid being born into a United Church home will want to orient their life around it.
"We try to reach people in a more open way. The service and language has changed. There's an openness to what church is about, as long as we can offer the good news in ways that people understand. You approach the head and the heart."
Reverend Jean Ward, in charge of urban ministries for the United Church of Canada, said many church leaders lost their way during the 1980s when the dream of perpetual progress died, and it became clear the world was not necessarily going to get better.
"One of the things we discovered was that we had lost the ability to talk from the heart," she said.
WEEKLY CHURCH ATTENDANCE:
Youths aged 15-19
1984: 22%
1992: 17%
2000: 22%
Note: Numbers refer to mainline Protestants and Roman Catholics outside Quebec
Source: Reginald Bibby, National Surveys of 3,500 Canadians