Nigeria's next president almost sure to be Muslim

Abuja, Nigeria - The minarets of the national mosque and the main cathedral's tower soar to equal heights over Nigeria's capital, neither eclipsing the other.

Religious leaders engineered the parity of spires to promote unity amid sectarian violence unleashed at the end of military rule in 1999. Just as deliberately, following eight years of rule by an elected southern Christian, all the main political parties have nominated northern, Muslim candidates for this year's presidential race in a fractious nation split between Muslims and Christians.

While there are some accusations the Christian-to-Muslim hand-over stems from corrupt dealmaking, there's also a sense that even a crude check on long-term dominance by any regional or ethnic group may be better than a free for all.

"If I have my chance, I'll try to do good by you. If you do my people bad, I'll do bad for you," says Innocent Ike, a 25-year old Christian who works in a book stall selling Bibles. "Now we all do good works for each other."

The 140 million people of Africa's most-populous nation are roughly split between a south dominated by Christians and once controlled by Europeans and a Muslim north, where Arabs traveling across the Sahara Desert established their footholds. Followers of traditional religions make up a small minority.

Religious and ethnic intermarriage is frequent and many communities boast both mosques and cathedrals. But religious violence has flared frequently since divisions largely tamped down by military regimes flourished with the fresh oxygen of freedom and liberty.

The question of religious identity is so sensitive that Nigeria's secular government didn't include it on a census taken last year. Detailed results released this week showed northern states with 75 million people to the south's 65 million — findings promptly rejected by state governments across the south.

After decades of military rule, the April 27 ballot is set to be the first time one elected leader hands power to another in Nigeria. Incumbent Olusegun Obasanjo is prevented from running again by term limits.

Most of the military regimes were led by Muslim northerners, since Britain largely staffed the pre-1960 independence army from the north. Leaders reportedly brokered an agreement ahead of the 1999 elections that brought to power the consensus Christian candidate, Obasanjo.

"After the end of rule by northern Muslims ... quite a number of people even in the north believed that the northerners had made a hash of things and it was time to have a southerner in charge," says Junaid Muhammad, an ex-lawmaker.

Muhammad, a northern Muslim himself, says the parties' recent turn toward the north is simply smart politics.

Obasanjo's People's Democratic Party nominated a largely unknown official from the north, Katsina Governor Umaru Yar'Adua, for president. He has chosen a southern Christian, Goodluck Jonathan, as his running mate. The current vice president is Muslim.

"Because of the strength of the north and the south, individually, and also the unity collectively, we informed the party to strategize to choose candidates that can win elections," said a spokesman for Obasanjo's party, John Odey. "We have respect for the Muslim religion and Christians and for nonbelievers and we try to accommodate all to ensure the country remains one."

Muhammadu Buhari, a former military ruler, won the nomination of Nigeria's largest opposition party, the All Nigeria Peoples Party. The opposition party has agreed that it and the smaller Action Congress will together run one candidate for president.

The Action Congress also nominated a Muslim, Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who was suspended from the governing party after falling out with Obasanjo. It and the All Nigeria Peoples Party will settle on their single candidate later.

Yar'Adua is seen as having a major advantage thanks to the dominance of the People's Democratic Party.

For some, the Christian-Muslim back-and-forth is a sign of political immaturity in a young democracy.

"What we lack is a true system, there's manipulation. The real voice of the people is not expressed," said Yahya Hamza, a 42-year old civil servant and a Muslim. "I'm not interested that our leaders be Muslim, pagan, Christian. What matters most is the quality of leadership."