If census statistics released on Monday on the growth of India’s Muslims seem to reinforce stereotypes about the community, a closer scrutiny of the numbers tells another story.
The report suggests, while the growth rate for Hindus has fallen between 1991 and 2001 compared with 1981-91, Muslims have actually grown faster in the last decade. The truth is quite different.
Both Hindus and Muslims have seen a significant fall in population growth rates. The false impression about a rising Muslim growth rate is created because the 1991 census did not include Jammu & Kashmir, the only Muslim majority state, while the 2001 census does include J&K.
Adjust for this and the Muslim growth rate plunges from 36 per cent to 29.3 per cent, while that for Hindus is only marginally affected.
Excluding the Muslims of J&K from the 2001 figures, the growth of the Muslim population from 1991 to 2001 was 29.3 per cent, significantly lower than the near 33 per cent growth figure of 1981-91.
The adjusted Hindu growth rate comes to 19.9 per cent. The census report is a basic tool for policymakers at all levels.
When contacted, Registrar General and Census Commissioner J K Banthia confirmed that the growth rates released on Monday were misleading.
It is true that the Muslim growth rate will come down to 29.3 per cent if J&K is excluded and the Hindu growth rate will decline to 19.9 per cent, he said. Strangely, however, his organisations press release made no mention of this crucial information.
The 32.8 per cent figure for growth in Muslim population in 1981-91 is based on excluding both Assam and J&K from the figures for 1981 and 1991. This is necessary since the 1981 census excluded Assam and the 1991 census excluded J&K.
Hence the two states needed to be kept out to make the figures comparable. Incidentally, the corresponding figure for the Hindu growth rate between 1981 and 1991 was 22.8%.
That suggests a completely different picture from what data portrayed.
Not only has Muslim population growth slowed down by 3.5 per cent, it has fallen faster than the Hindu population growth rate which lost 2.9 per cent in the same time.
The census numbers also convey the impression that there has been a sudden explosion in the Jain population over the last decade.
It suggests that Jains have grown 26 per cent over the last decade against a very meagre increase of 4.6 per cent between 1981 and 1991.
Again, this is almost certainly not a refection of the real situation on the ground. The same data, for instance, shows that the 0 to 6 age group among Jains is barely 10.6 per cent of the total Jain population.