Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has launched a massive campaign to encourage people to vote in Iraq's upcoming elections, determined to ensure that Shiites have a chance to win the power he believes rightfully belongs to the nation's majority Muslim sect.
Iraq's Election Commission announced on Sunday that the poll to elect a transitional parliament will be held on January 30, although speculation has deepened that the vote will be postponed.
Nearly 200 political parties had applied by Sunday to contest the elections, but about 90 of more than 540 registration centres have been shut down because of violence or threats, said Carlos Valenzuela, the head of the United Nations electoral advisory team.
Ayatollah Sistani is acutely aware that this is a critical juncture for Iraq's Shiites, analysts say.
"Sistani thinks that this is the Shiites' moment to reverse the last 80 years of being out of power - some would say the last 1400 years," said a Iraqi government official, who asked not to be identified.
Since the beginning of the United States-led occupation, Ayatollah Sistani has been a staunch proponent of early, direct elections, trying to straddle roles as an Iraqi nationalist leader and a promoter of Shiite political interests.
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Neighbourhood mosque leaders are following the fatwa, or religious ruling, issued by Ayatollah Sistani in mid-October requiring every man and woman to vote. The spiritual leader elevated the duty to vote to the same level as fasting during Ramadan and praying five times a day - among the most sacred obligations for religious Muslims.
"Without a fatwa from [al-Sistani], it's difficult for people to participate in this election because of the threats and apathy about the future. But if we have a religious edict, that definitely has an important impact," said Jaber Habib, a professor of political science at Baghdad University. "With such a fatwa issued, I can't imagine anyone [Shiite] not voting."
The debate over the elections' timing will pit Ayatollah Sistani and the millions who follow him against those in the current government who remain willing to consider a delay. If he decides - as is likely - that he cannot support a delay, Iraqi politicians will be hard put to endorse one. If they push for a delay over his objections, they will have to be prepared for civil disobedience on a mass scale.