Analysis: Local Evangelicals Show Clout

Washington, USA - The stereotype has been around as long as the religious right: conservative Christians are sheep-like, monolithic, controlled by their leaders.

The Iowa Republican caucuses should finally put that myth to rest.

While most top evangelicals looked at everyone but Mike Huckabee in the presidential race _ even floating the idea of a third-party candidate _ born-again Iowa caucus-goers embraced him, helping the former Arkansas governor defeat his better-known, better-funded GOP rivals.

In 2008, the rank-and-file have taken charge.

"Some organizations that had been quite influential a few years ago, no longer seem to have that kind of influence," said John Green, senior fellow at the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life. "In Iowa, you see new voices, you hear new names, you see new organizations."

Eighty-three percent of Huckabee's supporters in the caucuses identified themselves as born-again Christian or evangelical, according to a voter survey conducted for The Associated Press and TV networks. Huckabee won 46 percent of evangelical backing in the caucuses.

This, despite big-name conservative Christian endorsements for other Republicans. The Rev. Pat Robertson, a candidate for the Republican nomination in 1988, endorsed former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, saying he was the best candidate to fight terrorism. Paul Weyrich, a founder of the Moral Majority, backed former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

In Iowa, Huckabee didn't need them. The one-time Southern Baptist preacher based his appeal not only on traditional Christian issues such as marriage and family, but also spoke about the importance of environmental protection, fighting poverty and providing health care _ concerns that are priorities for many evangelical voters.

"I think what we're seeing is an assertion of grass-roots evangelicalism," said Randall Balmer, a Barnard College religious history professor who has been critical of conservative Christian political leaders. "Huckabee radically challenges the orthodoxy of the Republican establishment and the religious right."

The former governor is facing claims from old guard leaders that he is really a liberal. After Huckabee won the caucuses, Richard Viguerie, the direct mail expert who helped build the conservative movement, called the candidate a "Christian socialist" who would hurt the GOP.

But Huckabee's emphasis on social justice issues seemed key to his winning Christian support. "In some ways Mike Huckabee is more in touch with those changes than some of the better-known political leaders," Green said.

Huckabee is running in the midst of a generational shift in the evangelical world.

The Rev. Jerry Falwell and other founders of the Christian right have died or are in the twilight of their influence. National groups such as the Christian Coalition are floundering, and the organizational muscle of the movement now rests with local pastors, not national figures.

Huckabee had a tiny campaign in Iowa and a shoestring budget, but he also had a network of supporters outside his formal campaign who spread the word of his candidacy through their churches.

As these backers helped push Huckabee ahead in pre-caucus polls, he created a new pastors' coalition for his run and won endorsements from more nationally known figures, including Tim LaHaye, co-author of the apocalyptic "Left Behind" book series.

There is no guarantee that Huckabee can win conservative Christian backing in the primaries ahead.

Ted Olsen, a managing editor at Christianity Today magazine, noted that even though conservative Christians powered Huckabee's Iowa victory, he did not win a majority of born-again support. Nineteen percent went for Romney, 11 percent for former Sen. Fred Thompson and 10 percent each for Texas Rep. Ron Paul and former Sen. John McCain, according to the AP caucus survey.

"At least for now, he's able to appeal to evangelicals who both sympathize with and are critical of the religious right," Olsen said. "That's a neat political trick that I don't know that he can sustain. But if he can, that would win him the nomination."