Next Sunday, some Roman Catholic churches may be missing a priest. Next year, some may be missing a bishop.
But for all the commotion over a new U.S. policy for dealing with sexual abuse of minors by priests, most Catholics won't see changes any time soon -- if at all.
Interviews with dozens of key church leaders show this policy marks a historic change in the life of the U.S. Catholic Church, putting both priests and bishops under unprecedented scrutiny. They also say that many of the abusers have already been dealt with, that some dioceses may go more slowly than people expect, and that there remain concerns about how the Vatican will view all this.
''We may see a couple of cardinals removed and another 50 or so sleazy cases come to light,'' the Rev. Richard John Neuhaus, editor of the religion journal First Things, said Sunday. ''But I think for most Catholics, the firestorm has passed.''
The policy requires that any allegation of abuse be reported to authorities and that abusers be immediately removed from ministry -- no public Masses, no Roman collars, no calling themselves Father, no working or living among families. The policy took effect Friday, when it was approved by the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops.
But proposed changes in church law needed to enforce the policy by defrocking priests or firing bishops will require the pope's approval. That could take months -- or years.
The nation's almost 300 bishops are pledged to scour files dating back decades, says Susan Gibbs, spokeswoman for Cardinal Theodore McCarrick of Washington, D.C.
McCarrick and Roger Mahony of Los Angeles say they suspended such men long ago. But Cardinal Francis George of Chicago says he may not immediately remove seven priests, admitted abusers who had been rehabilitated and serve in supervised ministry. ''Common courtesy says you have to talk to people whose lives are at stake,'' he says.
An estimated 250 priests nationwide have resigned or have been suspended since the crisis flared in January. About 1,500 priests among 140,000 in the past 40 years have acknowledged or been accused of sexually molesting children.
The bishops' group appointed Oklahoma Gov. Frank Keating, a Catholic and ex-prosecutor, to head a review board that will audit bishops' compliance with the policy. Keating says covering up sex abuse is obstruction of justice and he'll apply that standard to past as well as future cases.
Victims' groups say defrocking a past abuser is the only acceptable punishment, especially for the hundreds who can't be prosecuted because statutes of limitations have expired.