A German Pope next?

"Will a German be the next Pope?" the country's best-selling newspaper Bild is asking this week in one of its trademark screaming front-page headlines.

Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, the guardian of Roman Catholic doctrine, is now touted so often as a successor to Pope John Paul that his owlish face was bound to appear one day alongside Bild's usual sexy models and soccer scandal stories.

The sudden spotlight, also shining on him in other European or North American media, surprises Church insiders who think the Pope's stern right-hand man has little chance of taking over.

The Pope, 84, was due to leave Rome's Gemelli hospital on Thursday after 10 days of treatment for a severe breathing problem, which again sparked off talk of the succession.

"Ratzinger's name is coming up because he's the Pope's main adviser and he's so powerful now," one European church official said. "But at 77, he's too old."

"It would just be more of the same," remarked a Vatican official frustrated by the entrenched conservativism he sees.

Another European church official said some cardinals in the Curia, the Vatican bureaucracy, seemed to back Ratzinger to assure continuity but Catholics outside were less enthusiastic.

"Choosing the Pope's right-hand man as his successor would seem to betray an unhealthy degree of insularity, even by Roman standards," the liberal U.S. Catholic magazine Commonweal wrote.

TYPECAST FOR WATCHDOG ROLE

Ratzinger seems typecast for the doctrinal watchdog role he has played since 1981 when he became head of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, the successor to the Inquisition.

Under his meek and courteous demeanour, the white-haired former theology professor has a steely conservative intellect ready to dissect theological works for dogmatic purity and ban teachers from spreading ideas that stray from the norm.

Ratzinger issued his latest ban on Monday, barring United States Jesuit Roger Haight from teaching Catholic theology because his 1999 book "Jesus: Symbol of God" contained what Ratzinger called grave errors questioning Christ's divinity.

As doctrinal watchdog, Ratzinger has silenced "liberation theology" leaders in Latin America, quietened Asian theologians who saw God's hand in other religions and sternly warned against a "radical feminism" he saw undermining the family.

His document "Dominus Iesus" (Lord Jesus) in 2000 shocked other Christians by saying only Roman Catholicism was a real church. He dismissed Lutheran criticisms as "absurd".

"Electing him would be seen as a setback for many Christians," another Church official remarked.

AN EVEN LONGER TRANSITION?

Another argument for Ratzinger is that his would be a "transitional papacy" to let the Church plot its future.

"But why would they want a transitional papacy after a long one like this?" one official asked. "The cardinals have had plenty of time to think about what they want for the future."

Some officials say Ratzinger would rather retire than become head of the world's 1.1 billion Catholics. Even if this is the case, he will certainly play a key role in the next conclave.

As dean of the College of Cardinals, he will preside over John Paul's funeral and address his fellow "princes of the Church" in private before they start voting.

The current frontrunners still seem to be the leading Italian candidates, Cardinals Dionigi Tettamanzi and Angelo Scola of Venice, and a handful of Latin American prelates.

All Church insiders couch any speculation with the warning that conclaves are highly unpredictable events.

"Imagine if the Pope had died just after the tsunami, or during a time of big change in the Middle East," one said. "Surprise events like that could have a strong influence."