ZAMBOANGA, Philippines - A massive Christian "no" vote was shaping up on Sunday as the Philippines prepared to hold a plebiscite on expanding a Muslim autonomy zone in the country's rebellion-racked south.
In polls to be held on Tuesday, millions of Christians and Muslims on the southern island of Mindanao and adjacent isles will be asked if they favour joining a five-year-old autonomy area currently ruled by a former Muslim separatist leader.
Manila set up the autonomy zone in 1996 to try to defuse demands by Muslim separatists for an Islamic state in the south of the 85 percent Roman Catholic country.
The region has also been racked by a wave of kidnaps orchestrated by the extremist Abu Sayyaf group, which has been holding two Americans and 16 Filipinos hostage for over 10 weeks.
"I think there will be a massive vote against joining the ARMM," North Cotabato provincial governor Emmanuel Pinol told Reuters, referring to the Autonomous Region for Muslim Mindanao.
North Cotabato is among 11 provinces and 14 cities which will hold the plebiscite. Ten of those provinces and almost all of the cities are dominated by Christians.
The present autonomy area comprises four small, impoverished Muslim provinces. The area is governed by former rebel chief Nur Misuari, a leader of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF)
The autonomy zone was established under the 1996 peace agreement between Manila and the MNLF, then the biggest separatist group fighting the government.
The plebiscite aims to give the MNLF a chance to persuade richer Christian-ruled provinces in Mindanao to join an expanded autonomy area.
MUSLIM DISENCHANTMENT
The country's five million Muslims regard Mindanao, 800 km (500 miles) south of Manila, as their ancestral homeland.
Migrations by rich Christian settlers reduced them to a minority, with little voice on how the mineral-rich region was to be run. The disenchantment triggered an MNLF-led separatist revolt in 1972.
"This plebiscite will show that only a few areas will go for this autonomy," Zamboanga Congressman Celso Lobregat said.
Presidential peace adviser Eduardo Ermita said that, at best, one province and two cities, all Muslim, might vote to join.
Christian leaders said one reason why other provinces would refuse to join was that Misuari, as regional governor, had failed to deliver on his promises to develop the autonomy area.
"This is not a Christian-Muslim issue," Pinol said. "The main reason why people would not be enticed to join is that they have not seen changes (in the autonomy area)."
Some Muslims have threatened to boycott the plebiscite, which is being held in the midst of a power struggle within the MNLF.
A group of MNLF leaders who have accused Misuari of alleged mismanagement recently ousted him as chairman of the MNLF and replaced him with an executive council.
Misuari denied the charges, denounced his ouster as provoked by Manila and urged followers to stay away from Tuesday's vote.
Manila is also holding peace talks with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, another separatist faction. But it has shunned negotiations with the Abu Sayyaf, calling it a gang of bandits.
03:41 08-12-01
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