BEIJING (Reuters) - Three months after a religious conference attended by China's leaders sparked hopes millions of illegal Christian worshippers might be legitimised, analysts are still trying to figure out what, if anything, comes next.
President Jiang Zemin made an unprecedented appearance at the special conference on religion in December, prompting speculation the government was rethinking its tough line on religion, which bans worship outside state-controlled institutions.
Analysts and diplomats said China was weighing plans for a new registration system to lure to the surface millions of illegal Christians now under the radar of the state church.
But since the conference, China has sent out a series of mixed signals.
At a televised a news conference with visiting U.S. President George W. Bush, Jiang admitted that although he was atheist, he had read the Bible, the Koran and Buddhist texts.
Then, Premier Zhu Rongji told the annual meeting of the National People's Congress (NPC), or parliament, this week: "We need to expand the contingent of religious patriots".
But two days later, the chairman of the state-backed Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association, which does not recognise the Pope's authority, suggested there would be no policy change.
"It will not change," Bishop Fu Tieshan told reporters when asked if the state church would open to underground Christians.
"The problems of some of the country's Protestant clergy, Catholic bishops and followers arise because they violate the country's laws and regulations," Fu said on the sidelines of the NPC. "It's not because of their beliefs."
Although ridiculed as a political figurehead by underground believers, Fu wore the collar and cloth for the parliament meeting and blended in with the tiny bureaucratic minority still favouring tailored Mao suits.
BISHOPS JAILED
Few concrete measures appeared on the horizon as the toothless NPC kicked off a legislative year due to be hijacked by the handover of Communist Party's highest posts in 2002.
Officially atheist China has enshrined freedom of religion in its constitution, but outlaws activities outside state groups.
It has jailed bishops and priests, shut down dozens of illegal churches, branded Protestant groups "evil cults" and slammed the Vatican for interfering in its internal affairs during decades of severed ties.
Yet as many as 20 million Protestants pray under wraps across the mainland and the Holy See estimates there are eight million Chinese Catholics loyal to the Pope -- compared to only five million in state-backed Catholic church.
Analysts say China is looking for more progressive and less sensitive ways to rein in underground worship.
"Everybody has been expecting some announcement to be made resulting from the work conference," said one Beijing-based Western diplomat.
China could widen the scope of its religious registration system to allow more mainstream groups to retain elements of their faith without fearing a crackdown, she and others said.
Their curiosities were stirred last November when U.S. evangelist Pat Robertson said he had reason to believe Beijing was planning new regulations allowing the underground Christian church to worship in freedom.
At the December conference, documents given to delegates indicated a more progressive attitude on religion, said Beatrice Leung, a leading expert on Sino-Vatican relations at Hong Kong's Lingnan University.
The documents said China had to realise the positive side of religion and suggested Beijing needed to step up consultation with religious groups to win their support, she said.
Officials have written articles in recent months urging the party to review Marxist-Leninism's dim views of religion to fit changing China, where market reforms have sapped socialist idealism and left little to fill the void.
With tens of millions of ordinary Chinese turning to groups vilified by Beijing -- the banned spiritual movement Falun Gong once claimed mainland membership larger than the party -- wooing better-behaved religious movements on the margins could boost rather than threaten social stability, some argue.
ZHU FUELS SPECULATION
Zhu's remarks to parliament on Tuesday might have contained another clue such a move was in the works.
"I heard 'we need to expand the contingent of religious patriots'," said another Western diplomat in Beijing, paraphrasing Zhu's comments. "I wonder what he means by that?"
But others said Zhu's Chinese phrasing appeared routine and it was difficult to pin down what, if anything, he meant.
Sceptics note past instances of Beijing and the Vatican showing signs of a rapprochement, only to hit new lows.
When the Pope apologised for errors of missionaries in colonial times last year, China said it was not enough.
They remain at a stalemate over the Pope's canonisation in 2000 of 19th century Catholic martyrs whom Beijing called traitors, and the Holy See's recognition of Taiwan -- regarded as a rebel province to be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary.